Slight Risk of Severe Weather March 1, 2016

At present, the SPC has a Slight Risk for severe weather for March 1 for the area between Hattiesburg, Mississippi, Atlanta, Georgia and Cincinnati, Ohio. The biggest threat will be damaging winds, but somewhat of a tornado threat exists, especially from Northern Tennessee into much of Kentucky. Not expecting a big day, but a few tornadoes are possible.

3/1/16 0z 4km NAM shows a line of storms from Tennesee into Mississippi. However, it shows more cellular activity in Central Kentucky. If this pans out, the tornado threat will be maximized.

Forecast sounding for above model and time near Campbellsville, Kentucky. While instability is not high (especially dewpoints), decent lapse rates and rather large hodographs show the possibility for tornadoes. Strong tornadoes are not expected; this will be more of a brief tornado threat.

At the moment, I believe we will see a tornado or two tomorrow. It seems that so far this year, when tornadoes are even remotely possible, we get one or two at least. I will estimate that we get two tornadoes on March 1.

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